CBO UNDERESTIMATES NUMBER OF PEOPE WHO WILL LOSE INSURANCE UNDER TRUMPCARE
The Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan group, has estimated that under the American Health Care Act now under consideration 14 million people will lose their health insurance next year and an additional 10 million within the next 10 years.
However, the CBO has seriously underestimated the number of people who will lose their insurance. What the CBO failed to take into account in doing their estimates is the effect that Trumpcare will have on employer sponsored plans.
The Affordable Care Act requires that all employers with 50 or more full-time employees offer “affordable” and “adequate” health coverage or pay significant tax penalties. The ACA defines a full-time employee as one who works 30 hours a week. For many employers, this greatly increased the number of employees who had to be covered under their plans, as well as the overall cost and type of benefits provided. While the AHCA does not repeal this mandate, that will come in a separate bill because of the budget reconciliation process, employers will no longer be penalized for not offering coverage.
While this will spur employment, because employers will now be able to restore people to full time and expand their work forces, it will also mean that many employers will stop offering health insurance. Many more will reduce benefits and shift more of the cost of coverage to employees
Millions of workers who now have affordable and adequate plans through their employers will find that next year they will have less coverage at a higher cost, or no coverage at all. The CBO report does not address this demographic at all.